Monday, October 10, 2011

Predicting number of 3DS iterations with fancy statistics

With Nintendo's history of releasing numerous itterations of their handhelds most gamers expect this to be true for the 3DS as well. I thought it would be interesting to use some statistical methods to try and predict the number of 3DS iterations we should expect.

I put together a nice little graph showing the number of version released of each system, that would be the red dots. With the exception of the Game Boy Color the number of iterations seem to increase in a fairly linear fashion. So I used the ordinary least squares method to fit a straight line onto the graph. The slope of this line is calculated so that the distance between the line and the dots is the smallest possible. We can use this to predict the number of iterations the 3DS will have, based on the assumption that the relationship between handheld generations and number of versions is a linear one. The results are presented in the table below, the most interesting being our prediction of four versions of the 3DS.

So if you are one those people who have put off your 3DS purchase hoping for a new and improved model to come out, now you have some pseudoscience to support your decision.